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Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on November 10?

Odds right now: 34°C >99%, 26°C or below <1%, 27°C <1%.

OtherEnds in 4 h$19K traded$16K in 24h$58K liquidityWatch the rules
OutcomeMarketCleus24h
34°C
>99%—▲ 95.7
26°C or below
<1%——
27°C
<1%——
28°C
<1%—▼ 0.8
29°C
<1%—▼ 2.9
30°C
<1%—▼ 2.8
31°C
<1%—▼ 17.0
32°C
<1%—▼ 49.5
33°C
<1%—▼ 28.0
35°C
<1%—▼ 0.6
36°C or higher
<1%——
Price history
0%50%100%Nov 8Nov 10
34°C >99%26°C or below <1%27°C <1%28°C <1%
Where the money sits
27°C$7.9K
28°C$7.8K
30°C$6.6K
31°C$6.5K
29°C$6.4K
32°C$6.3K
26°C or below$5.6K
36°C or higher$3.1K

Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.

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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.

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What’s going on

Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on November 10: the story so far

Updated November 10, 2026 at 8:19 AM UTC from live market data.

As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket traders see 34°C as the most likely outcome at >99%, ahead of 26°C or below (<1%) and 27°C (<1%). 11 outcomes are trading in all. 34°C has risen 50 points since November 8, from 50% to >99%. 26°C or below has fallen 49 points since November 8, from 49% to <1%. In the last 24 hours 34°C gained 96 points.

$19K has been traded on this event, $16K of it in the last 24 hours, and $58K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “33°C”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on Yes.

Trading is scheduled to end on November 10, 2026. How it resolves: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature reported at Kuala Lumpur Intl Airport (WMKK) on 10 Nov '26. The qualifying value is the highest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for Kuala Lumpur Intl Airport (WMKK) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. Rules risk: The rules were clarified after launch.

Smart money

Which side the winners are on

The top holders of “33°C”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 1 of them have made $25K+.

Wallets with $25K+ all-time profit ($0 held)
Yes 100%0% No
All top holders ($2.8K held)
Yes 0%100% No

When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.

HolderHoldsAll-time P&L
0xa5ef…2966 No$681—
0xae6d…ded2 No$500−$31K
0x333a…75c1 No$356$112
0x9811…a5f8 No$175−$722
0x6a43…26ba No$174—
0xfb72…1ac1 No$170—
0xe102…71df No$115—
0x074f…6abf No$115—
0x9711…8ee7 No$83—
0xd161…379e No$69—
Unusual bets

Big bets in this market that stand out

Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.

Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.

Rules

How it actually resolves

The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.

Rules risk: The rules were clarified after launch.

Resolution source: aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=WMKK&format=raw&date=2026-11-10T19:00:00Z

Full rules from Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature reported at Kuala Lumpur Intl Airport (WMKK) on 10 Nov '26. The qualifying value is the highest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for Kuala Lumpur Intl Airport (WMKK) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Every other report is routine, including one issued off the nominal hour and one that carries no METAR or SPECI label. For How to Read the METAR Report, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Weather/How+to+Read+the+METAR+Report.pdf The hourly temperature remark is the group beginning with the letter T followed by exactly eight digits. After the T, one digit for sign (0 positive, 1 negative) and three for tenths of a degree Celsius give the temperature; the following four are the dew point and are not used. T01390133 is 13.9°C; T10171022 is −1.7°C. If a routine observation does not carry the hourly temperature remark, the temperature group in the body of that observation governs for that observation, in whole degrees Celsius as reported. It appears as temperature and dew point separated by a slash, with M marking a negative value: 18/12 is 18°C; M11/M17 is −11°C. An observation that reports no temperature in either place is disregarded. Each market in this event states its range in whole degrees Celsius. The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree, with a value ending in exactly half rounded up to the next higher whole degree, and that whole Celsius value determines which range contains it. For example, 13.9°C counts as 14°C; 17.4°C counts as 17°C; 16.5°C counts as 17°C; −1.7°C counts as −2°C; −8.5°C counts as −8°C. An observation counts if its time stamp, converted to the station's local time (including any daylight-saving shift in effect), falls on the observation date. This market will resolve at the issuance of the first METAR observation for the station on the day following the observation date or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. Resolution is determined from the observations the resolution source shows for the observation date. In the event that the Aviation Weather Center has published no routine observation reporting a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that neither source has published data sufficient to determine a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The report the resolution source shows for a given observation time is the one that counts, whether or not it is marked as a correction (COR). Changes to observations within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered. Where the first routine observation for the following date is published before that deadline, resolution is determined from a read taken after it. Where it is not, resolution is determined from a read taken at that deadline. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. The resolution source for this market will be the routine observations for Kuala Lumpur Intl Airport (WMKK) published here: https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=WMKK&format=raw&date=2026-11-10T19:00:00Z&hours=30

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Questions

What are the odds of Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on November 10?

On Polymarket, 34°C is trading at >99%. Other outcomes: 34°C >99%, 26°C or below <1%, 27°C <1%. Prices update live.

What’s going on with Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on November 10?

As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket traders see 34°C as the most likely outcome at >99%, ahead of 26°C or below (<1%) and 27°C (<1%). 11 outcomes are trading in all. 34°C has risen 50 points since November 8, from 50% to >99%. 26°C or below has fallen 49 points since November 8, from 49% to <1%. In the last 24 hours 34°C gained 96 points.

When does this market end?

It is scheduled to end on November 10, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.

What does Cleus predict?

Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.

Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.