Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
Odds right now: Yes 2%.
Matched by Cleus on the exact question, date and line. Average is the real-money markets only; Manifold uses play money. Polymarket ↗ · Manifold ↗
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
No. Full FDA approval by Dec 31 is not feasible: candidates are still Phase 1 or preclinical, with nothing licensed as of mid-November.
- BioWorld Nov 15, 2026: no FDA-approved hantavirus vaccines; research remains at the earliest stages.
- Nov 11 public-health update: no Andes vaccine exists; CDC ended the cruise-ship outbreak response on June 24.
- US DNA candidates finished Phase 1 years ago; Moderna-Korea mRNA is still preclinical, with Phase 1 aimed at 2028.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026: the story so far
Updated November 15, 2026 at 12:25 PM UTC from live market data and Cleus’s research.
As of November 15, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Hantavirus vaccine in 2026” a 2% chance. The price has held close to 2% since October 16.
Manifold’s play-money crowd puts it at 4%.
Cleus’s own estimate is 50%, 49 points above the market (confidence: high, researched November 15, 2026). BioWorld Nov 15, 2026: no FDA-approved hantavirus vaccines; research remains at the earliest stages. What to watch next: None expected; the market simply expires Dec 31, 2026.
$143K has been traded on this event, $11K of it in the last 24 hours, and $63K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “Hantavirus vaccine in 2026”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027. How it resolves: Yes only if FDA grants full approval to a human hantavirus vaccine by 11:59 PM ET Dec 31, 2026, per the FDA licensed-vaccines list or credible consensus. Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 9 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
In plain words: Yes only if FDA grants full approval to a human hantavirus vaccine by 11:59 PM ET Dec 31, 2026, per the FDA licensed-vaccines list or credible consensus.
Watch out: Full approval is required; an EUA or a foreign license such as Korea’s Hantavax does not count.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ask Cleus about this market
Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.
Analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money. Free: 3 questions a day.
More other markets
Questions
What are the odds of Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
On Polymarket, Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? is trading at 2%. Cleus’s own estimate is 50%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
As of November 15, 2026, Polymarket traders give “Hantavirus vaccine in 2026” a 2% chance. The price has held close to 2% since October 16.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
How does this market resolve?
Yes only if FDA grants full approval to a human hantavirus vaccine by 11:59 PM ET Dec 31, 2026, per the FDA licensed-vaccines list or credible consensus.
What does Cleus predict?
No. Full FDA approval by Dec 31 is not feasible: candidates are still Phase 1 or preclinical, with nothing licensed as of mid-November.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.