First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
Odds right now: None by December 25, 2026 96%, Cash Cat (CASHCAT) 2%, Artificial Inu (AI) 2%.
Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “None by December 25, 2026”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 8 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Rules risk: Resolves on "credible reporting", which leaves room to argue.
Full rules from Polymarket
This event will resolve to the first of the coins listed below to reach a fully diluted valuation equal to or greater than $1,000,000,000 at any point between the creation of this event and December 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no coin listed below reaches a fully diluted valuation of $1,000,000,000 or greater by that time, this event will resolve to "None". Fully diluted valuation refers to the figure published by each coin's resolution source, shown as "Fully Diluted Valuation" on CoinGecko and as "FDV" on CoinMarketCap. Circulating supply market cap will not be used. The coins in this event, and their resolution sources, are: - Cash Cat (CASHCAT), Robinhood Chain 0x020bfc650a365f8bb26819deaabf3e21291018b4, CoinGecko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/cash-cat - Artificial Inu (AI), Robinhood Chain 0x2E8c31162b855A2ffa90F6F8634643Ad6F111e18, CoinMarketCap, https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/artificial-inu-ai/ - The Black Bull (ANSEM), Solana 9cRCn9rGT8V2imeM2BaKs13yhMEais3ruM3rPvTGpump, CoinGecko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/the-black-bull - NetNet (NET), Robinhood Chain 0xca9c78dd337a67f6e0077f65f5e9218719d30edf, CoinGecko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/netnet A coin reaches the threshold at the first moment its fully diluted valuation, as displayed on its resolution source, is equal to or greater than $1,000,000,000. If two or more coins first reach the threshold within the same minute, the coin with the higher fully diluted valuation at that minute will be treated as first. A momentary crossing qualifies, provided it is verifiable from the resolution source or from a consensus of credible reporting. Each coin is judged solely against the source listed for it. Differences in methodology between CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap will not be adjusted for. The primary resolution source for this event will be the source listed above for each coin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If a resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or stops publishing data for a coin, that coin will resolve based on other credible and publicly verifiable sources.
Ask Cleus about this market
Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.
Analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money. Free: 3 questions a day.
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Questions
What are the odds of First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
On Polymarket, None by December 25, 2026 is trading at 96%. Other outcomes: None by December 25, 2026 96%, Cash Cat (CASHCAT) 2%, Artificial Inu (AI) 2%. Prices update live.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on December 26, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.