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Bitcoin price on November 11?

Odds right now: 72,000-74,000 49%, 74,000-76,000 26%, <72,000 23%.

72,000-74,000:Polymarket 49%Options fair value 48%
CryptoEnds in 24 h$14K traded$11K in 24h$325K liquidity
OutcomeMarketCleusOptions
72,000-74,000
49%—48%
74,000-76,000
26%—23%−3 pts
<72,000
23%——
76,000-78,000
4%—4%
78,000-80,000
<1%—<1%
80,000-82,000
<1%—<1%
82,000-84,000
<1%—<1%
84,000-86,000
<1%—<1%
86,000-88,000
<1%—<1%
88,000-90,000
<1%—<1%
>90,000
<1%——
Same question, other markets
OutcomePolymarketOptions
72,000-74,00049%48%
74,000-76,00026%23%−3
76,000-78,0004%4%
78,000-80,000<1%<1%
80,000-82,000<1%<1%
82,000-84,000<1%<1%
84,000-86,000<1%<1%
86,000-88,000<1%<1%
88,000-90,000<1%<1%

Matched by Cleus on the exact question, date and line. Average is the real-money markets only; Manifold uses play money. Polymarket ↗

Price history
0%31%62%Nov 4Nov 10
72,000-74,000 49%74,000-76,000 26%<72,000 23%76,000-78,000 4%
Where the money sits
>90,000$32K
88,000-90,000$30K
86,000-88,000$26K
72,000-74,000$24K
<72,000$24K
76,000-78,000$23K
74,000-76,000$22K
84,000-86,000$21K

Liquidity resting in each outcome’s order book. Thin books move fastest on big orders.

Order book
OutcomeSpreadBuy to +2¢Sell to −2¢
72,000-74,0000.9¢$2.9K$343
<72,0000.1¢$4$1
76,000-78,0000.6¢$303$135
78,000-80,0000.5¢$96$4
80,000-82,0000.2¢$74$1

How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.

Research this in CleusSee it on Polymarket ↗
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Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.

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What’s going on

Bitcoin price on November 11: the story so far

Updated November 10, 2026 at 5:20 PM UTC from live market data.

As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket traders see 72,000-74,000 as the most likely outcome at 49%, ahead of 74,000-76,000 (26%) and <72,000 (23%). 11 outcomes are trading in all. 72,000-74,000 has held close to 49% since November 4. 74,000-76,000 has fallen 25 points since November 4, from 51% to 26%. In the last 24 hours 72,000-74,000 gained 24 points.

Options markets imply a fair value of 48% for 72,000-74,000.

$14K has been traded on this event, $11K of it in the last 24 hours, and $325K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “76,000-78,000”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have 95% of their money on No.

Trading is scheduled to end on November 11, 2026. How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Smart money

Which side the winners are on

The top holders of “76,000-78,000”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 15 of them have made $25K+.

Wallets with $25K+ all-time profit ($1.1K held)
Yes 5%95% No
All top holders ($2.3K held)
Yes 4%96% No

When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.

HolderHoldsAll-time P&L
0xa5ef…2966 No$772—
0xdb5a…3965 No$346$192K
0x06dc…4524 No$280$1.1M
0x8970…36b5 No$272$88K
0x88d8…7234 No$228$17
0x3543…dd67 No$120$288
0x997c…251e No$117$163K
0xb94e…eed6 No$39$382
0x8970…36b5 Yes$27$88K
0x997c…251e Yes$22$163K
Unusual bets

Big bets in this market that stand out

Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.

Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.

Rules

How it actually resolves

The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.

Resolution source: www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

Full rules from Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

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Questions

What are the odds of Bitcoin price on November 11?

On Polymarket, 72,000-74,000 is trading at 49%. Other outcomes: 72,000-74,000 49%, 74,000-76,000 26%, <72,000 23%. Prices update live.

What’s going on with Bitcoin price on November 11?

As of November 10, 2026, Polymarket traders see 72,000-74,000 as the most likely outcome at 49%, ahead of 74,000-76,000 (26%) and <72,000 (23%). 11 outcomes are trading in all. 72,000-74,000 has held close to 49% since November 4. 74,000-76,000 has fallen 25 points since November 4, from 51% to 26%. In the last 24 hours 72,000-74,000 gained 24 points.

When does this market end?

It is scheduled to end on November 11, 2026, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.

What does Cleus predict?

Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.

Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.