10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Odds right now: Yes 2%.
How much you could buy or sell before the price moves 2¢, from Polymarket’s live order book.
Cleus is reading the rules and searching the web and X…
Usually 15–40 seconds.
Cleus’s own estimate from public information. Not financial advice.
A fresh, deeper run: Cleus searches wider, thinks it through, and lays out the bull and bear case, the scenarios and the one thing that would change its mind.
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027: the story so far
Updated November 15, 2026 at 10:17 AM UTC from live market data.
As of November 15, 2026, Polymarket traders give “10.0 or above earthquake before 2027” a 2% chance. The price has held close to 2% since October 16.
$842K has been traded on this event, $2.6K of it in the last 24 hours, and $39K sits in the order books. Among the largest holders of “10.0 or above earthquake before 2027”, wallets with $25K+ in past Polymarket profits have nearly all of their money on No.
Trading is scheduled to end on February 1, 2027. How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Which side the winners are on
The top holders of “10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?”, weighted by what each wallet has made on Polymarket all-time. 7 of them have made $25K+.
When proven winners lean against the price, it’s worth a second look. When they agree with it, the price is probably fair.
Big bets in this market that stand out
Orders of $500+ from the last 30 days, scored for new wallets, first markets, long odds and size. Evidence, not accusations — and never a name.
Nothing unusual in the last few hours — big bets are coming from established wallets at normal odds.
How it actually resolves
The written rules below decide this market — not the headline.
Full rules from Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Ask Cleus about this market
Cleus has this market’s prices, rules, its own odds and the unusual bets in front of it, and searches the web and X for the rest.
Analysis, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money. Free: 3 questions a day.
More other markets
Questions
What are the odds of 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
On Polymarket, 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? is trading at 2%. Prices update live.
What’s going on with 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
As of November 15, 2026, Polymarket traders give “10.0 or above earthquake before 2027” a 2% chance. The price has held close to 2% since October 16.
When does this market end?
It is scheduled to end on February 1, 2027, then settles once the result is confirmed under its rules.
What does Cleus predict?
Cleus has not made a call on this market yet.
Prices from Polymarket’s public data, refreshed every few minutes. Cleus odds are Cleus’s own estimate. Unusual-bet scores are statistical patterns, not findings of wrongdoing. Not financial advice; not affiliated with Polymarket.